Improving productivity of Australian wheat by adapting sowing date and genotype phenology to future climate

With global food demand predicted to grow by 50–80% 2050, timely strategies are required best adapt the projected changes in agriculture. In this study, we illustrated how adaptation not requiring additional inputs (sowing date and genotype choice) could be used minimise impact of stresses raise wheat productivity Australia. Yield abiotic impacting crops were quantified silico for 1990s (1976–2005) 2050s (2036–2065) across Australian wheatbelt using a modified version Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) 33 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5. Two assessed: sowing dates and/or cultivars contrasting phenology (i.e. fast-spring, mid-spring, slow-spring fast-winter cultivars). For given cultivar, optimum windows associated with highest long-term yield shift earlier 2050 at most locations, an average 9.6 days mid-spring cultivar. Sowing early maturing enabled further increase major parts wheatbelt. tested conditions, cultivar allowed simulated while limiting shortening grain filling period due warming. Thanks CO2 fertilisation proper adaptation, frequency severe frost, heat drought stress was reduced all regions, except West where occur more frequently 2050s. This national 4.6% risk crop failure locations. While study focused on avoidance through adaptations choice phenology), breeding enhanced tolerance appeared promising avenues improve productivity.